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Adults' perceived prevalence of enteric fever predicts laboratory-validated incidence of typhoid fever in children
Journal of Health Population and Nutrition
  • Xinguang Chen, Wayne State University School of Medicine, USA
  • Bonita Stanton, Wayne State University School of Medicine, USA
  • Al Pach, International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea
  • Andrew Nyamete, International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea
  • R. Leon Ochiai, International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea
  • Linda Kaljee, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Maryland, USA
  • Baiqing Dong, Guangxi Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangxi, China
  • Dipika Sur, National Institute of Cholera & Enteric Diseases, Kolkata, India
  • S.K. Bhattacharya, National Institute of Cholera & Enteric Diseases, Kolkata, India
  • Siti Sapardiyah Santoso, National Institute of Health Research and Development, Indonesia
  • Magdarina Agtini, National Institute of Health Research and Development, Indonesia
  • Zahid Memon, Aga Khan University
  • Zulfiqar Ahmed Bhutta, Aga Khan University
  • Canh Gia Do, National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Nanoi, Viet Nam
  • Lorenz von Seidlein, International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea
  • John Clemens, International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea
Publication Date
1-1-2007
Document Type
Article
Abstract

This study was undertaken to develop a model to predict the incidence of typhoid in children based on adults’ perception of prevalence of enteric fever in the wider community. Typhoid cases among children, aged 5-15 years, from epidemic regions in five Asian countries were confirmed with a positive Salmonella Typhi culture of the blood sample. Estimates of the prevalence of enteric fever were obtained from random samples of adults in the same study sites. Regression models were used for establishing the prediction equation. The percentages of enteric fever reported by adults and cases of typhoid incidence per 100,000, detected through blood culture were 4.7 and 24.18 for Viet Nam, 3.8 and 29.20 for China, 26.3 and 180.33 for Indonesia, 66.0 and 454.15 for India, and 52.7 and 407.18 for Pakistan respectively. An established prediction equation was: incidence of typhoid (1/100,000= −2.6946 + 7.2296 × reported prevalence of enteric fever (%) (F=31.7, p2=0.992). Using adults’ perception of prevalence of disease as the basis for estimating its incidence in children provides a cost-effective behavioural epidemiologic method to facilitate prevention and control of the disease.

Comments

This work was published before the author joined Aga Khan University.

Citation Information
Xinguang Chen, Bonita Stanton, Al Pach, Andrew Nyamete, et al.. "Adults' perceived prevalence of enteric fever predicts laboratory-validated incidence of typhoid fever in children" Journal of Health Population and Nutrition Vol. 25 Iss. 4 (2007) p. 469 - 478
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/zahid_memon/3/