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Article
Pro-Cyclical Effect of Sovereign Rating Changes on Stock Returns: A Fact or Factoid?
Applied Economics
  • Yasir Riaz, Lahore University of Management Sciences
  • Choudhry Tanveer Shehzad, Lahore University of Management Sciences
  • Zaghum Umar, Zayed University
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
3-28-2019
Abstract

© 2018, © 2018 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This article examines the effect of changes in sovereign credit ratings and their outlook on the stock market returns of European countries at different phases of business cycle. Using standard four-factor model, it records a significant average marginal effect of credit rating announcements on stock market returns. Both magnitude and significance of the effect vary with business cycle and across announcement types. However, we do not find evidence of pro-cyclical effect of sovereign rating and outlook changes on stock returns. Our results show that stock markets react more negatively to rating downgrades in recovery phases and more positively to rating upgrades in contractionary period. Both results are statistically significant and robust to various sensitivity tests.

Publisher
Routledge
Disciplines
Keywords
  • asset pricing,
  • business cycle,
  • Sovereign ratings,
  • stock returns
Scopus ID
85054928224
Indexed in Scopus
Yes
Open Access
No
https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1527465
Citation Information
Yasir Riaz, Choudhry Tanveer Shehzad and Zaghum Umar. "Pro-Cyclical Effect of Sovereign Rating Changes on Stock Returns: A Fact or Factoid?" Applied Economics Vol. 51 Iss. 15 (2019) p. 1588 - 1601 ISSN: <a href="https://v2.sherpa.ac.uk/id/publication/issn/0003-6846" target="_blank">0003-6846</a>
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/zaghum-umar/20/