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Failure to Trade: The Curious Case of Two Argus Futures Contracts
International Review of Accounting, Banking & Finance (2013)
  • Yiuman Tse, University of Missouri-St. Louis
  • Michael Williams, Governors State University
Abstract
On January 1, 2010 the Saudi state-run oil company, Aramco, switched its oilpricing index away from the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) index to the Argus Sour Crude index. In an attempt to profit from this move, both the New York Mercantile Exchange and Intercontinental Exchange Inc. independently launched futures contracts based on the Argus index. However, despite many months passing, not one trade has been placed on either contract. We examine the impact of the Argus contract launches on WTI-Brent crude oil futures spreads. Not surprisingly, we find evidence that the introduction of the Argus futures contracts had little if any impact on WTI, Brent, or WTI-Brent spread dynamics. Thus, both the Saudi index switch and the launch of two alternative futures contracts failed to significantly remedy WTI/Brent pricing anomalies. We attribute the lack of impact not on inadequate contract design but rather on the "Winner Takes All" phenomena. Specifically, market participants refused to switch from the WTI and Brent contracts given those contracts' pre-existing liquidly advantages as well as the fact that a WTI/Brent cross-hedge could already effectively hedge sour crude positions.
Disciplines
Publication Date
Spring 2013
Citation Information
Yiuman Tse and Michael Williams. "Failure to Trade: The Curious Case of Two Argus Futures Contracts" International Review of Accounting, Banking & Finance Vol. 5 (2013)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/yiuman-tse/28/