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Article
Making Business Predictions by Combining Human and Machine Intelligence in Prediction Markets
ICIS 2011 Proceedings
  • Yiftach Nagar, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States.
  • Thomas Malone, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States. & MIT Center for Collective Intelligence, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States.
Publication Date
12-5-2011
Abstract

Computers can use vast amounts of data to make predictions that are often more accurate than those by human experts. Yet, humans are more adept at processing unstructured information and at recognizing unusual circumstances and their consequences. Can we combine predictions from humans and machines to get predictions that are better than either could do alone? We used prediction markets to combine predictions from groups of people and artificial intelligence agents. We found that the combined predictions were both more accurate and more robust than those made by groups of only people or only machines. This combined approach may be especially useful in situations where patterns are difficult to discern, where data are difficult to codify, or where sudden changes occur unexpectedly.

Citation Information
Yiftach Nagar and Thomas Malone. "Making Business Predictions by Combining Human and Machine Intelligence in Prediction Markets" (2011)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/yiftach_nagar/1/