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Article
Sensitivity Analysis with Mixture of Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertainties
AIAA Journal
  • Jia Guo
  • Xiaoping Du, Missouri University of Science and Technology
Abstract
The study on epistemic uncertainty due to the lack of knowledge has received increasing attention in risk assessment, reliability analysis, decision making, and design optimization. Different theories have been applied to model and quantify epistemic uncertainty. Research on sensitivity analysis for epistemic uncertainty has also been initialized. Sensitivity analysis can identify the contributions of individual input variables with epistemic uncertainty to the model output. It then helps guide the collection of more information to reduce the effect of epistemic uncertainty. In this paper, an effective sensitivity analysis method for epistemic uncertainty is proposed when both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties exist in model inputs. This method employs the unified uncertainty analysis framework to calculate the plausibility and belief measures. The gap between belief and plausibility measures is used as an indicator of the effect of epistemic uncertainty on the model output. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance between the two measures is used to quantify the main effect and the total effect of each independent variable with epistemic uncertainty. by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance, the importance of each variable is ranked. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated with two engineering examples.
Department(s)
Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering
Keywords and Phrases
  • Aleatory Uncertainties,
  • Epistemic Uncertainty,
  • Sensitivity Analysis
Document Type
Article - Journal
Document Version
Citation
File Type
text
Language(s)
English
Rights
© 2007 American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), All rights reserved.
Publication Date
1-1-2007
Citation Information
Jia Guo and Xiaoping Du. "Sensitivity Analysis with Mixture of Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertainties" AIAA Journal (2007) ISSN: ‎0001-1452
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/xiaoping-du/78/