What if public agencies don’t change transportation policies or regulations as autonomous vehicles (AVs) enter the market and expand their presence on American roadways? This is one of many questions we investigate in assessing the potential risks that AVs present to the desired future outcomes that cities, regions, and states have established through their land use and transportation plans. We use the term ‘risks’ purposefully. This is because our research and modeling reveal the potential for substantial increases in vehicle travel and decreases in transit ridership if AVs operate under current policy and regulatory frameworks.

So, what can policy makers and local agencies do? We will get to that in the second article of this series but, first it is important to understand how private sector market forces are changing travel decisions and behavior. We follow this exploring a new model of behavior and the results, and then wrap up with some suggestions of what communities can do now to influence these trends.