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Article
WRF Forecasts of Great Plains Nocturnal Low-Level Jet-Driven MCSs. Part II: Differences between Strongly and Weakly Forced Low-Level Jet Environments
Weather and Forecasting
  • Brian J. Squitieri, Iowa State University
  • William A. Gallus, Jr., Iowa State University
Document Type
Article
Publication Version
Published Version
Publication Date
10-1-2016
DOI
10.1175/WAF-D-15-0150.1
Abstract

The classic Great Plains southerly low-level jet (LLJ) is a primary factor in sustaining nocturnal convection. This study compares convection-allowing WRF forecasts of LLJ events associated with MCSs in strongly and weakly forced synoptic environments. The depth of the LLJs and magnitude, altitude, and times of the LLJ peak wind were evaluated in observations and WRF forecasts for 31 cases as well as for case subsets of strongly and weakly forced synoptic regimes. LLJs in strongly forced regimes were stronger, deeper, and peaked at higher altitudes and at earlier times compared to weakly forced cases. Mean error MCS-centered composites of WRF forecasts versus RUC analyses were derived at MCS initiation time for the LLJ atmospheric water vapor mixing ratio, LLJ total wind magnitude, convergence, most unstable convective available potential energy (MUCAPE), and most unstable convective inhibition (MUCIN). In most configurations, simulated MCSs in strongly and weakly forced regimes initiated to the north and east of observations, generally in a region where LLJ moisture, MUCAPE, and MUCIN fields were forecast well, with larger errors outside this region. However, WSM6 simulations for strongly forced cases showed a southward displacement in MCS initiation, where a combination of ambient environmental factors and microphysics impacts may simultaneously play a role in the location of forecast MCS initiation. Strongly forced observed and simulated MCSs initiated west of the LLJ axis and moved eastward into the LLJ, while observed and simulated MCSs in weakly forced environments traversed the termini of the LLJ. A northward bias existed for simulated MCS initiation and LLJ termini for weakly forced regimes.

Comments

This article is published as Squitieri, Brian J., and William A. Gallus Jr. "WRF Forecasts of Great Plains Nocturnal Low-Level Jet-Driven MCSs. Part II: Differences between Strongly and Weakly Forced Low-Level Jet Environments." Weather and Forecasting 31, no. 5 (2016): 1491-1510. DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-15-0150.1. Posted with permission.

Copyright Owner
American Meteorological Society
Language
en
File Format
application/pdf
Citation Information
Brian J. Squitieri and William A. Gallus. "WRF Forecasts of Great Plains Nocturnal Low-Level Jet-Driven MCSs. Part II: Differences between Strongly and Weakly Forced Low-Level Jet Environments" Weather and Forecasting Vol. 31 Iss. 5 (2016) p. 1491 - 1510
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/william_gallus/66/