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Article
Alaska Daily Extreme Precipitation Processes in a Subset of CMIP5 Global Climate Models
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
  • Kevin M. Smalley, Iowa State University
  • Justin M. Glisan, Iowa State University
  • William J. Gutowski, Jr., Iowa State University
Document Type
Article
Publication Version
Published Version
Publication Date
4-27-2019
DOI
10.1029/2018JD028643
Abstract

We analyze physical processes leading to daily wintertime (December, January, and February) extreme precipitation events in Alaska between 1986 and 2005. This is done by applying self‐organizing maps to environmental conditions corresponding to National Centers for Environmental Information precipitation, using the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA‐Interim) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate selected Global climate model (GCM; selected GCMs). We focus on widespread extreme events, defined as the top 0.1% of daily precipitation occurring on at least six grid boxes on the same day. The self‐organizing maps methodology allows identifying large‐scale circulations conducive to extreme events. This methodology identifies distinctive circulation patterns conducive to producing extreme events with a trough west of Alaska leading to south or southwest flow across the state. Extreme events occur along the windward (southern) side of the Alaska Range due to uplift by the mountains in the ERA‐Interim and in all models. In the National Centers for Environmental Information observations, precipitation rates are greater than in any of the selected GCMs. Simulated extreme precipitation decreases as model resolution decreases, and our study suggests that the smoothness of model topography is a reason for the scaling between model precipitation rate and model resolution.

Comments

This article is published as Smalley, K., Glisan, J. M., & Gutowski, W. J. Jr. (2019). Alaska daily extreme precipitation processes in a subset of CMIP5 global climate models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124, 4584–4600. doi: 10.1029/2018JD028643.

Copyright Owner
American Geophysical Union
Language
en
File Format
application/pdf
Citation Information
Kevin M. Smalley, Justin M. Glisan and William J. Gutowski. "Alaska Daily Extreme Precipitation Processes in a Subset of CMIP5 Global Climate Models" Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Vol. 124 Iss. 8 (2019) p. 4584 - 4600
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/william-gutowski/116/