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Article
Are Agricultural Professionals’ Farmland Value and Crop Price Forecasts Consistent?
Journal of the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers
Document Type
Article
Disciplines
Publication Version
Published Version
Publication Date
1-1-2018
Abstract
Using agricultural professionals’ forecasts of future farmland values and corn and soybean cash prices for their service area, we analyze whether their land and corresponding crop price expectations are consistent. We find that changes in expected land prices over time are positively correlated with expected crop price changes, suggesting these two forecasts are somewhat consistent. More importantly, we find that the linkage between these two forecasts is significantly stronger in the mediumand long-term as opposed to the shortterm, as well as a substantially stronger correlation for districts that have heavier reliance on crop production as a net farm income source.
Copyright Owner
American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers
Copyright Date
2018
Language
en
File Format
application/pdf
Citation Information
Wendong Zhang, Wei Zhang and Chad Hart. "Are Agricultural Professionals’ Farmland Value and Crop Price Forecasts Consistent?" Journal of the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (2018) p. 1 - 16 Available at: http://works.bepress.com/wendong_zhang/93/
This article is published as Zhang, W., W. Zhang, and C. Hart. “Are Agricultural Professionals’ Farmland Value and Crop Price Forecasts Consistent?” Journal of American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (2018): 1‐16. Posted with permission.