Are Agricultural Professionals’ Farmland Value and Crop Price Forecasts Consistent?Journal of the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (2018)
Using agricultural professionals’ forecasts of future farmland values and corn and soybean cash prices for their service area, we analyze whether their land and corresponding crop price expectations are consistent. We find that changes in expected land prices over time are positively correlated with expected crop price changes, suggesting these two forecasts are somewhat consistent. More importantly, we find that the linkage between these two forecasts is significantly stronger in the medium- and long-term as opposed to the short-term, as well as a substantially stronger correlation for districts that have heavier reliance on crop production as a net farm income source.
- Crop Price,
- Land Value,
- Opinion Survey,
Publication DateAugust, 2018
Citation InformationWendong Zhang, Wei Zhang and Chad E. Hart. "Are Agricultural Professionals’ Farmland Value and Crop Price Forecasts Consistent?" Journal of the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers Vol. 90 (2018)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/wendong_zhang/33/