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Article
Are Agricultural Professionals’ Farmland Value and Crop Price Forecasts Consistent?
Journal of the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (2018)
  • Wendong Zhang, Iowa State University of Science and Technology
  • Wei Zhang, Iowa State University
  • Chad E. Hart, Iowa State University
Abstract
Using agricultural professionals’ forecasts of future farmland values and corn and soybean cash prices for their service area, we analyze whether their land and corresponding crop price expectations are consistent. We find that changes in expected land prices over time are positively correlated with expected crop price changes, suggesting these two forecasts are somewhat consistent. More importantly, we find that the linkage between these two forecasts is significantly stronger in the medium- and long-term as opposed to the short-term, as well as a substantially stronger correlation for districts that have heavier reliance on crop production as a net farm income source. 
Keywords
  • Expectation,
  • Crop Price,
  • Land Value,
  • Opinion Survey,
  • Iowa
Publication Date
August, 2018
Citation Information
Wendong Zhang, Wei Zhang and Chad E. Hart. "Are Agricultural Professionals’ Farmland Value and Crop Price Forecasts Consistent?" Journal of the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers Vol. 90 (2018)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/wendong_zhang/33/