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Article
China's Missing Pigs: Correcting China's Hog Inventory Data Using a Machine Learning Approach
American Journal of Agricultural Economics
  • Yongtong Shao, Tianjin University of Commerce
  • Tao Xiong, Huazhong Agricultural University
  • Minghao Li, New Mexico State University
  • Dermot Hayes, Iowa State University
  • Wendong Zhang, Iowa State University
  • Wei Xie, Tianjin University of Commerce
Document Type
Article
Publication Version
Submitted Manuscript
Publication Date
1-1-2020
DOI
10.1111/ajae.12137
Abstract

Small sample size often limits forecasting tasks such as the prediction of production, yield, and consumption of agricultural products. Machine learning offers an appealing alternative to traditional forecasting methods. In particular, Support Vector Regression has superior forecasting performance in small sample applications. In this article, we introduce Support Vector Regression via an application to China’s hog market. Since 2014, China’s hog inventory data has experienced an abnormal decline that contradicts price and consumption trends. We use Support Vector Regression to predict the true inventory based on the price-inventory relationship before 2014. We show that, in this application with a small sample size, Support Vector Regression out-performs neural networks, random forest, and linear regression. Predicted hog inventory decreased by 3.9% from November 2013 to September 2017, instead of the 25.4% decrease in the reported data.

Comments

This is a working paper of an article published as Shao, Yongtong, Tao Xiong, Minghao Li, Dermot Hayes, Wendong Zhang, and Wei Xie. "China's Missing Pigs: Correcting China's Hog Inventory Data Using a Machine Learning Approach." American Journal of Agricultural Economics (2020). doi: 10.1111/ajae.12137. Posted with permission.

Copyright Owner
Agricultural & Applied Economics Association
Language
en
File Format
application/pdf
Citation Information
Yongtong Shao, Tao Xiong, Minghao Li, Dermot Hayes, et al.. "China's Missing Pigs: Correcting China's Hog Inventory Data Using a Machine Learning Approach" American Journal of Agricultural Economics (2020)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/wendong_zhang/109/