Skip to main content
Presentation
Dynamic Modeling of Nonmedical Opioid Initiation: Epidemic and Access
Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations
  • Alexandra Nielsen, Portland State University
  • Teresa D. Schmidt, Portland State University
  • Dennis McCarty, Oregon Health & Science University
  • Wayne W. Wakeland, Portland State University
Document Type
Poster
Publication Date
6-1-2013
Subjects
  • System theory,
  • Drugs -- Research -- United States,
  • Opioid abuse,
  • Opioid abuse -- Forecasting
Abstract
We report development of a systems level dynamic model of initiation and nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids in the US. The model calibrated to 1995-2005 National Survey of Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) data, predicts 2006-2011 data well. Preliminary findings indicate that interventions which reduce the perceived attractiveness of opioids for recreational use may be able to reduce initiation and nonmedical use most significantly, while supply restriction effected through drug take back days and prescribing changes may have more modest effects. We argue that system dynamics is an effective approach for evaluating potential interventions to this complex system where the use of pharmaceutical opioids to treat pain is fraught with undesirable distal outcomes.
Description

Poster presentation at the College on Problems of Drug Dependents, 75th Annual Meeting, San Diego, CA

Persistent Identifier
http://archives.pdx.edu/ds/psu/17733
Citation Information
Nielsen, A., Schmidt, T.D., McCarty, D., Wakeland, W. (June 2013). Dynamic modeling of nonmedical opioid initiation: Epidemic and access. Poster presentation at the College on Problems of Drug Dependents, 75th Annual Meeting, San Diego, CA.