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A Two-Stage Technology Foresight Model with System Dynamics Simulation and its Application in the Chinese ICT Industry
Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2012)
  • Hongyi Chen
  • Wayne W. Wakeland, Portland State University
  • Jiang Yu, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Abstract
Technology foresight is a process that identifies the critical technologies a country or industry needs to develop in order to shape a desired future. In this paper, a two-stage technology foresight approach is proposed. During the first stage, critical technologies are identified and evaluated by nationwide experts through Delphi surveys. In the second stage, a system dynamics simulation model is used to estimate how critical parameter values are likely to impact the attainment of foresight goals. A detailed illustration of this two-stage process is provided by a technology foresight case study in the Chinese information and communication technologies (ICT) industry. Because it was identified by the first-stage Delphi method as a critical technology, the diffusion of 4th generation wireless telecommunication technology (4G) was simulated, and experimentation was conducted. Suggestions are provided regarding how the Chinese information industry would need to expand the IP network infrastructure in order to support technology foresight goals under different scenarios.
Keywords
  • Technology foresight,
  • System dynamics modeling,
  • Innovation diffusion
Disciplines
Publication Date
September, 2012
Citation Information
Hongyi Chen, Wayne W. Wakeland and Jiang Yu. "A Two-Stage Technology Foresight Model with System Dynamics Simulation and its Application in the Chinese ICT Industry" Technological Forecasting and Social Change Vol. 79 Iss. 7 (2012)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/wayne_wakeland/20/