Burn-on and penetration defects in steel casting are principally caused by localised overheating of the sand mould or cores. Such overheating can cause liquid metal to compromise the mould surface and entrain onto the surface of the mould. A method has been developed to predict likely burn-on and penetration defect locations as part of a standard casting simulation. The method relies on determining, from simulation results, the locations where the mould is above a certain critical temperature. The critical temperature is generally above the temperature at which the steel is fully solidified. by measuring the time periods during which these locations in the mould are above the critical temperature, burn-on and penetration defects can be predicted. The method is validated through comparison with previous experimental data. Several parametric studies are conducted to investigate the sensitivity of the predictions to the choice of the critical temperature, the interfacial heat transfer coefficient between the steel and the mould, the pouring temperature, and the mould material. The results of one case study are presented where burn-on or penetration defects observed on a production steel casting are successfully predicted.