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Political-Business Cycle and Capital Formation in Mexico, 1993.1-2016.4
International Journal of Social Science and Economic Research (2019)
  • Vicente German-Soto, Universidad Autónoma de Coahuila
  • Cesareo Gámez Garza, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León
Abstract
The relationship between political-business cycle and capital formation is studied in Mexico along 1993.1-2016.4. The political-business cycle theory (PBC) argues that economies experience expansions in elections times and, as consequence, slowdowns in the first year of the new presidential government. Time series and dynamic panel data models allow to confirm this hypothesis: for each federal government, the capital formation is higher in the last year than the first year. This result is evidence of an artificially created political-business cycle distorting the market signals and the decisions of production. Consequences for the economy are more than visible: displacements of aggregate demand originating economic recessions.
Keywords
  • Political Business Cycle,
  • Capital formation,
  • Unit Roots,
  • Dynamic Panel Data
Publication Date
April, 2019
Citation Information
Germán-Soto, Vicente and Gámez Garza, Cesareo. (2019). “Political-Business Cycle and Capital Formation in Mexico, 1993.1-2016.4”, International Journal of Social Science and Economic Research, 4(4): 2687-2707.
Creative Commons license
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons CC_BY International License.