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Towards integrated modeling of the long-term impacts of oil spills
Marine Policy
  • Helena M. Solo-Gabriele, University of Miami
  • Tom Fiddaman, Ventana Systems, Inc.
  • Cecilie Mauritzen, Norwegian Meteorological Institute
  • Cameron H. Ainsworth, University of South Florida
  • David M. Abramson, New York University
  • Igal Berenshtein, University of Miami
  • Eric P. Chassignet, Florida State University
  • Shuyi S. Chen, University of Washington - Seattle Campus
  • Robyn N. Conmy, US Environmental Protection Agency
  • Christa D. Court, University of Florida
  • William K. Dewar, French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS)
  • John W. Farrington, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
  • Michael G. Feldman, Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative
  • Alesia C. Ferguson, North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University
  • Elizabeth Fetherston-Resch, Florida Institute of Oceanography
  • Deborah French-McCay, RPS Ocean Science
  • Christine Hale, Texas A&M University Corpus Christi
  • Ruoying He, North Carolina State University
  • Vassiliki Kourafalou, University of Miami
  • Kenneth Lee, Fisheries and Oceans Canada
  • Yonggang Liu, University of South Florida
  • Michelle Masi, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA
  • Emily S. Maung-Douglass, Louisiana State University at Baton Rouge
  • Steven L. Morey, Florida Agricultural and Mechanical University
  • Steven A. Murawski, University of South Florida St. Petersburg
  • Claire B. Paris, University of Miami
  • Natalie Perlin, University of Miami
  • Erin L. Pulster, University of South Florida
  • Antonietta Quigg, Texas A&M University at Galveston
  • Denise J. Reed, University of New Orleans
  • James J. Ruzicka, Oregon State University
  • Paul A. Sandifer, College of Charleston
  • John G. Shepherd, University of Southampton
  • Burton H. Singer, University of Florida
  • Michael R. Stukel, Florida State University
  • Tracey Sutton, Nova Southeastern University
  • Robert H. Weisberg, University of South Florida
  • Denis Wiesenburg, University of Southern Mississippi
  • Charles A. Wilson, Gulf of Mexico Alliance
  • Monica Wilson, University of Florida
  • Katya Wowk, Texas A and M University - Corpus Christi
  • Callan Yanoff, Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative
  • David Yoskowitz, Texas A and M University - Corpus Christi
ORCID
0000-0002-5280-7071
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
9-1-2021
Keywords
  • Oil spills,
  • Impact and damage assessment,
  • Integrated assessment modeling,
  • Systems dynamics,
  • Causal loop diagrams
Abstract

Although great progress has been made to advance the scientific understanding of oil spills, tools for integrated assessment modeling of the long-term impacts on ecosystems, socioeconomics and human health are lacking. The objective of this study was to develop a conceptual framework that could be used to answer stakeholder questions about oil spill impacts and to identify knowledge gaps and future integration priorities. The framework was initially separated into four knowledge domains (ocean environment, biological ecosystems, socioeconomics, and human health) whose interactions were explored by gathering stakeholder questions through public engagement, assimilating expert input about existing models, and consolidating information through a system dynamics approach. This synthesis resulted in a causal loop diagram from which the interconnectivity of the system could be visualized. Results of this analysis indicate that the system naturally separates into two tiers, ocean environment and biological ecosystems versus socioeconomics and human health. As a result, ocean environment and ecosystem models could be used to provide input to explore human health and socioeconomic variables in hypothetical scenarios. At decadal-plus time scales, the analysis emphasized that human domains influence the natural domains through changes in oil-spill related laws and regulations. Although data gaps were identified in all four model domains, the socioeconomics and human health domains are the least established. Considerable future work is needed to address research gaps and to create fully coupled quantitative integrative assessment models that can be used in strategic decision-making that will optimize recoveries from future large oil spills.

DOI
10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104554
Comments

[Graphical Abstract]

Additional Comments
Highlights • A conceptual framework was developed for an integrated oil spill model that can be used to answer societal level questions. • Framework includes four knowledge domains: ocean environment, biological ecosystems, socioeconomics, and human health. • A causal loop diagram was developed to evaluate linkages and data gaps. • System separates into two tiers, the natural systems and human systems. • The largest knowledge gaps correspond to the socioeconomics and human health domains.
Citation Information
Helena M. Solo-Gabriele, Tom Fiddaman, Cecilie Mauritzen, Cameron H. Ainsworth, et al.. "Towards integrated modeling of the long-term impacts of oil spills" Marine Policy Vol. 131 (2021) p. 104554 ISSN: 0308-597X
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/tracey-sutton/298/