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Article
Earthquake and Tsunami Forecasts: Relation of Slow Slip Events to Subsequent Earthquake Rupture
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • Timothy H. Dixon, University of South Florida
  • Yan Jiang, Geological Survey of Canada
  • Rocco Malservisi, University of South Florida
  • Robert McCaffrey, Portland State University
  • Nicholas Voss, University of South Florida
  • Marino Protti, Observatorio Vulcanologico y Sismologico de Costa Rica
  • Victor Gonzalez, Observatorio Vulcanologico y Sismologico de Costa Rica
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
12-1-2014
Keywords
  • earthquake,
  • tsunamis,
  • low slip events,
  • GPS
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1412299111
Disciplines
Abstract

The 5 September 2012 Mw 7.6 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary followed a 62-y interseismic period. High-precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events (SSEs) in the decade leading up to the earthquake, both up-dip and down-dip of seismic rupture. Deeper SSEs were larger than shallower ones and, if characteristic of the interseismic period, release most locking down-dip of the earthquake, limiting down-dip rupture and earthquake magnitude. Shallower SSEs were smaller, accounting for some but not all interseismic locking. One SSE occurred several months before the earthquake, but changes in Mohr–Coulomb failure stress were probably too small to trigger the earthquake. Because many SSEs have occurred without subsequent rupture, their individual predictive value is limited, but taken together they released a significant amount of accumulated interseismic strain before the earthquake, effectively defining the area of subsequent seismic rupture (rupture did not occur where slow slip was common). Because earthquake magnitude depends on rupture area, this has important implications for earthquake hazard assessment. Specifically, if this behavior is representative of future earthquake cycles and other subduction zones, it implies that monitoring SSEs, including shallow up-dip events that lie offshore, could lead to accurate forecasts of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential.

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Citation / Publisher Attribution

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v. 111, issue 48, p. 17039-17044

Link to the publisher: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1412299111

Citation Information
Timothy H. Dixon, Yan Jiang, Rocco Malservisi, Robert McCaffrey, et al.. "Earthquake and Tsunami Forecasts: Relation of Slow Slip Events to Subsequent Earthquake Rupture" Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 111 Iss. 48 (2014) p. 17039 - 17044
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/timothydixon/38/