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Unpublished Paper
Long-Run Effects on Employment Rates of Local Demand Shocks, Across and Within Local Labor Markets
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
  • Timothy J. Bartik, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
Upjohn Author ORCID Identifier

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6238-8181

Publication Date
1-21-2021
Series
Upjohn Institute working paper ; 21-339
DOI
10.17848/wp21-339
Abstract

This paper estimates the long-run effects on a county’s prime-age employment rate of labor demand shocks to both the county and its overlying commuting zone (CZ). These effects are allowed to vary with local “distress” (baseline employment rate of the county or CZ), and with the size of the demand shock. In more distressed CZs, a county’s employment rate is more affected by county or CZ shocks. As a result, targeting or reallocating jobs to more distressed CZs will tend to raise employment rates. If a county is relatively distressed compared to its CZ, targeting job shocks at that county has greater effects on county employment rates. Reallocating CZ jobs or job shocks toward more distressed counties within a CZ results in greater effects on the CZ’s average employment rate. In addition, a CZ shock’s effects on a county’s employment rate tend to be higher if the CZ’s baseline demand-driven growth trend is below average. This is particularly true in CZs whose baseline distress was average or low.

Issue Date
January 2021, Revised June 2023
Note
Previously issued under the title How Long-Run Effects of Local Demand Shocks on Employment Rates Vary with Local Labor Market Distress
Citation Information
Bartik, Timothy J. 2023. "Long-Run Effects on Employment Rates of Local Demand Shocks, Across and Within Local Labor Markets." Upjohn Institute Working Paper 21-339. Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.