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Article
An Economic Regression Model to Predict Market Movements
International Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technology (2015)
  • Timothy A. Smith, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
  • Andrew Hawkins, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
Abstract
In finance, multiple linear regression models are frequently used to determine the value of an asset based on its underlying traits. We built a regression model to predict the value of the S&P 500 based on economic indicators of gross domestic product, money supply, produce price and consumer price indices. Correlation between the error in this regression model and the S&P’s volatility index (VIX) provides an efficient way to predict when large changes in the price of the S&P 500 may occur. As the true value of the S&P 500 deviates from the predicted value, obtained by the regression model, a growth in volatility can be seen that implies models like the Black-Scholes will be less reliable. During these periods of changing volatility we suggest that the user apply a regime switching approach and/or seek alternative prediction methods.
Keywords
  • partial differential equations,
  • regression analysis,
  • stochastic,
  • financial mathematics
Publication Date
December, 2015
DOI
https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V28P501
Citation Information
Timothy A. Smith and Andrew Hawkins. "An Economic Regression Model to Predict Market Movements" International Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technology Vol. 28 Iss. 1 (2015) p. 1 - 3 ISSN: 21231-5373
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/timothy-smith/2/