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Selected Works of T. Trevor Caughlin
Article
Combining Mesocosm and Field Experiments to Predict Invasive Plant Performance: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach
Ecology (2015)
  • Chris H. Wilson, University of Florida
  • T. Trevor Caughlin, University of Florida
  • David J. Civitello, University of South Florida
  • S. Luke Flory, University of Florida
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Abstract
Invasive plant fecundity underlies propagule pressure and ultimately range expansion. Predicting fecundity across large spatial scales, from regions to landscapes, is critical for understanding invasion dynamics and optimizing management. However, to accurately predict fecundity and other demographic processes, improved models that scale individual plant responses to abiotic drivers across heterogeneous environments are needed. Here we combine two experimental data sets to predict fecundity of a widespread and problematic invasive grass over large spatial scales. First, we analyzed seed production as a function of plant biomass in a small-scale mesocosm experiment with manipulated light levels. Then, in a field introduction experiment, we tracked plant performance across 21 common garden sites that differed widely in available light and other factors. We jointly analyzed these data using a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) framework to predict fecundity as a function of light in the field. Our analysis reveals that the invasive species is likely to produce sufficient seed to overwhelm establishment resistance, even in deeply shaded environments, and is likely seed-limited across much of its range. Finally, we extend this framework to address the general problem of how to scale up plant demographic processes and analyze the factors that control plant distribution and abundance at large scales.
Keywords
  • Bayesian hierarchical models,
  • ecological niche,
  • fecundity,
  • invasive species,
  • mechanistic models,
  • microstegium vimineum
Disciplines
Publication Date
April, 2015
DOI
10.1890/14-0797.1
Citation Information
Chris H. Wilson, T. Trevor Caughlin, David J. Civitello and S. Luke Flory. "Combining Mesocosm and Field Experiments to Predict Invasive Plant Performance: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach" Ecology Vol. 96 Iss. 4 (2015) p. 1084 - 1092
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/timothy-caughlin/15/