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Article
Earthquake Loss Estimates and Policy Implications for Nonductile Concrete Buildings in Los Angeles
Earthquake Spectra (2016)
  • Thalia Anagnos, San Jose State University
  • Mary Comerio, University of California - Berkeley
  • Jonathan P. Stewart, University of California - Los Angeles
Abstract
Collapse potential of nonductile concrete buildings represents a substantial life safety hazard globally that can be mitigated through carefully crafted policy. Mitigation policy should be approached incrementally by (1) understanding problem scale, (2) screening for low and high risk buildings, (3) performing engineering analysis for potentially vulnerable buildings, and (4) retrofit or replacement of high-risk structures. This research addresses initial stages of this sequence for Los Angeles, California. The intent was to investigate approaches for informing mitigation priorities by: characterizing the inventory of approximately 1500 pre-1976 concrete buildings; estimating risk, including identification of building types that contribute most substantially to the risk; and investigating the impact of retrofit policy alternatives. Loss estimates for scenario events are based on the HAZUS Advanced Engineering Building Module. Depending on model assumptions, losses range from $1.8 to $28.5 billion and <50 to 8,300 fatalities. We investigate proposals targeting vulnerable buildings for retrofit as compared to retrofitting all buildings in the inventory. Awareness raised by this research contributed to formation of the Los Angeles Mayoral Seismic Safety Task Force, which developed policy proposals. 
Keywords
  • loss estimation,
  • nonductile,
  • concrete,
  • NEES
Publication Date
Fall November, 2016
DOI
10.1193/060415EQS088M
Publisher Statement
This is the Accepted Manuscript of an article that appeared in Earthquake Spectra, 32, 4, 2016. The Version of Record is available at the following link.
Citation Information
Thalia Anagnos, Mary Comerio and Jonathan P. Stewart. "Earthquake Loss Estimates and Policy Implications for Nonductile Concrete Buildings in Los Angeles" Earthquake Spectra Vol. 32 Iss. 4 (2016) p. 1951 - 1973
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/thalia_anagnos/23/