A phosphorus (P) budget was estimated for the watershed of Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, to assess the effects of nutrient management on P accumulation in the watershed soils. We estimated how nutrient management programs and legislation have affected the budget by comparing the budget for 2007 to a budget calculated for 1995, prior to implementation of the programs. Since 1995, inputs decreased from 1,310,000 to 853,000 kg P/yr (35% reduction) and accumulation decreased from 575,000 to 279,000 kg P/yr (51% reduction). Changes in P input and accumulation were attributed primarily to enhanced agricultural nutrient management, reduction in dairy cattle feed supplements and an urban P fertilizer ban. Four scenarios were investigated to determine potential impacts of additional nutrient management tactics on the watershed P budget and P loading to Lake Mendota. Elimination of chemical P fertilizer input has the greatest potential to reduce watershed P accumulation and establishment of riparian buffers has the greatest potential to prevent P loading to Lake Mendota.