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Dissertation
Evaluation of sampling methods, quantitative indices, and predictive models for estimating mallard breeding populations
(1998)
  • Scott C Barras
Abstract
Management of North American waterfowl populations has been based on population trends calculated from data collected in surveys of breeding populations and habitats. I surveyed Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) on six 10.4-km2 sites in North Dakota during 1994 and fifteen 10.4-km2 sites during 1995 to evaluate techniques and indices used to estimate breeding populations. I used aerial, roadside, and walking surveys on transects to compare populations calculated using each technique. Estimates from aerial surveys were lower than roadside and walking techniques. An index that included flocks of 2–5 males (flocked males) gave comparable population estimate seasonal sampling periods. A second index that excluded flocked comparable estimates. 
I compared wetland features and Mallard use of wetlands along roadsides to those at least 200 m distant to determine if surveys based on roads were representative of habitats on surrounding landscapes. Wetland size, shoreline development, and wetland use by Mallards did not differ with roadside proximity (P > 0.05). Habitat characteristics and Mallard breeding populations on roadside wetlands were representative of those on surrounding landscapes. 
I evaluated predictions of a pond-pair regression model used in simulations of Mallard productivity. Uncorrected model predictions correlated well ( r = 0.766) with actual counts of Mallards using 10.4-km2 sites. Walking surveys of at least 20% of the wetlands on each site were required to calculate correction factors that improved model estimates. Square root of surface water area best predicted pond occupancy by Mallard breeding pairs. Density of wetlands best predicted Mallard breeding pair abundance at the landscape scale. Results of this study validated the population index and portions of the sampling approach used by wildlife management agencies to estimate breeding Mallard populations. Techniques used to predict habitat use at the individual wetland scale were effective, but landscape-scale predictions also were effective and better reflected the habitat selection process.
Disciplines
Publication Date
1998
Degree
Doctor of Philosophy
Field of study
Fisheries and Wildlife
Department
Fisheries and Wildlife
Advisors
Terry A. Messmer
Citation Information
Scott C Barras. "Evaluation of sampling methods, quantitative indices, and predictive models for estimating mallard breeding populations" (1998)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/terry-messmer/425/