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Article
Exchange Rate Regime, Central Bank Independence, and Political Business Cycles in Brazil
Studies in Comparative International Development (2009)
  • Taeko Hiroi, The University of Texas at El Paso
Abstract
This article examines policy consequences of electoral cycles and exchange rate regime choices in Brazil. The literature on opportunistic political business cycles maintains that governments adopt expansionary economic policies before elections to mobilize voters’ support. However, research findings in Latin America based on the theory has been inconclusive. I argue that the lack of conclusive evidence in Latin America stems from measurement errors common in the use of cross-national aggregate data. Using Brazil’s monthly data from 1985 to 2006, this article shows that there are electorally induced fiscal cycles under fixed and crawling peg exchange rate regimes and electorally induced monetary cycles under floating exchange rates only when the nation’s central bank is not independent. Indeed, accounting for Brazil’s unique economic contingencies and longitudinal variations in the de facto central bank independence, its public policy behavior remarkably resembles that of the more affluent, economically stable OECD countries.
Keywords
  • central bank independence,
  • exchange rate regime,
  • monetary policy,
  • political business cycle,
  • Brazil
Publication Date
2009
Citation Information
Taeko Hiroi. "Exchange Rate Regime, Central Bank Independence, and Political Business Cycles in Brazil" Studies in Comparative International Development Vol. 44 Iss. 1 (2009)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/taeko_hiroi/7/