BACKGROUND: In animal studies, prolactin has been found to be important for mammary epithelial development and its administration has been shown consistently to increase the rate of mammary tumor formation. Previous epidemiologic studies of prolactin and breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women have been limited in size, and the results have been inconsistent. We conducted a nested case-control study within the prospective Nurses' Health Study cohort to better determine the relationship between plasma prolactin levels and postmenopausal breast cancer risk. METHODS: Blood samples were collected from cohort members during the period from 1989 through 1990. Prolactin levels were measured by use of a microparticle enzyme immunoassay. Included in this analysis were 306 postmenopausal women who were diagnosed with breast cancer after blood donation but before June 1994. One or two postmenopausal control subjects were matched per case subject on the basis of age, postmenopausal hormone use, and time of day and month of blood collection; the study included a total of 448 control subjects. RESULTS: In conditional logistic regression analyses, a significant positive association was observed between plasma level of prolactin and postmenopausal breast cancer risk (highest versus lowest quartile, multivariate relative risk = 2.03; 95% confidence interval = 1.24-3.31; two-sided P for trend = .01). The relationship was independent of plasma sex steroid hormone levels and was similar after excluding case subjects diagnosed in the first 2 years after blood collection. CONCLUSIONS: These prospective data suggest that higher plasma prolactin levels are associated with an increased risk of breast cancer in postmenopausal women.