This paper estimates the impact of Brazilian soybean area expansion on US and Brazilian soybean exports to China by projecting these countries’ exports for various Brazilian soybean area growth scenarios. The results indicate that the Brazilian area expansion does not significantly affect US soybean exports to China but positively impacts Brazil's soybean exports to China. Ex‐ post analysis of the impacts of Chinese tariff during the US–China trade war indicates that China significantly diverted its imports from the United States to Brazil. We conclude that the US soybean trade policy should focus on mitigating the adverse effects of import demand changes.