The purpose of this paper is to assist the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) Reform Council to analyse performance information relating to the Year 12 or Certificate II attainment of Indigenous young people and to understand better variations in performance across jurisdictions. As part of these analyses variations over time within each jurisdiction have been reported. The analyses use existing data sources. No new data have been collected. There are four strands to this work:

1. a statistical overview of educational attainments and participation;
2. multivariate analyses of influences on attainment;
3. a review of literature intended to inform an understanding of trends and patterns in attainment; and
4. the development of a model of influences on attainment based on the quantitative analyses and informed by perspectives from the literature.

As the first stage of a two-stage project, this paper focuses on quantitative analyses of data but with an orientation to providing a basis for the second stage that will focus upon strategies and interventions associated with improved outcomes.