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Presentation
Various Dimensions of Iranian Nuclear Deal
Strategic Vision Institute (SVI) and Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) (2015)
  • Mr. Shams uz Zaman
Abstract
The successful nuclear agreement on the mutual framework towards implementation of Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, between Iran and P-5+1 nations is a major development in the region ostensibly having far reaching implications. With imposed restrictions on Iranian enrichment and reprocessing activities, this deal has capped the Iranian nuclear capability for at least a decade thus diminishing the threat of Iran-Israel confrontation. This although is good news for the troubled region because the deal would allow Iran to re-establish its economic and trade relations with rest of the world besides getting access to over $ 100 billion of its assets, but at the same time would profoundly raise the Iranian stature in the region. Iran is likely to use this authority to influence the situation in Syria, Iraq and Yemen in its favour, thus possibly antagonizing other regional states especially of GCC and Turkey. Therefore, while Iran-US nuclear deal has stabilized the situation at one end of conflict spectrum, it risks destabilizing the regional asymmetric equation. Consequently, the ethnic and sectarian fault lines could further accentuate to perpetuate intra-state and inter-state conflict.
Keywords
  • Middle East,
  • Iran,
  • Nuclear Deal,
  • JCPOA,
  • US,
  • GCC,
  • Turkey,
  • Israel
Publication Date
Winter November 6, 2015
Location
Islamabad Club, Islamabad, Pakistan
Comments
The Strategic Vision Institute (SVI) and Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) organized a Two Day National Conference on “Emerging Geostrategic Landscape in South-West Asia and the Asia Pacific” on November 05-06, 2015 at the Islamabad Club, Islamabad. Aim of the conference was to analytically review the recent geopolitical developments in South-West Asia and the Asia-Pacific, and their implications for the strategic stability on the South Asian region. The seminar also focused on finding out policy options for Pakistan vis-à-vis the transformations that will shape the emerging South Asian geopolitical architecture and seriously impact the constituent elements of regional strategic stability.

Mr. Shams uz Zaman, Visiting Faculty Member, RIUC, presented his views on the topic titled “Various Dimensions of Iranian Nuclear Deal”. He stated that Iran’s nuclear controversy was stirred in 2002 after the disclosure of two secret Iranian nuclear facilities; one at Arak and the other at Natanz. He further stated that amid International pressure, Iran held negotiations with EU-3 comprising of Germany, France and the United Kingdom and agreed to suspend Uranium enrichment after signing the additional protocol. But President Ahmedinejad’s hardliner government resumed Uranium enrichment at Natanz in 2005 consequently prompting Russia, China and US to join EU-3 thus forming P-5+1 diplomatic team to negotiate on Iranian nuclear activities. Furthermore, the disclosure of another secret Uranium enrichment facility in 2009 at Fordo and Iran’s subsequent refusal to allow IAEA inspectors at Parchin military complex, invited sanctions from International community. After the elections in 2013, the newly elected President Hassan Rouhani adopted a conciliatory approach towards P-5+1 on the nuclear issue and succeeded in finalizing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on 15 July 2015 at Vienna. He also mentioned that the JCPOA between Iran and the US was materialized despite all the odds. However, as President Obama prepares to leave the office, other challenges to the nuclear deal might emerge from Republicans or even by the possible Iranian actions. While threat of Israeli strike on Iran has receded, thus addressing a potential source of destabilization for the region, other factors, not particularly associated to nuclear realm, might still be a cause of problem, for example Iran’s intervention in Syria and Yemen or frequent missile tests might cause the deal to fail. He contended that the GCC states are also apprehensive of the deal alongside Israel therefore the struggle to project power in the region through proxies would remain a continuous source of irritation resulting in the escalation of conflict below the sub-conventional level without ruling out the risks of a major war.
Citation Information
Shams uz Zaman. "Various Dimensions of Iranian Nuclear Deal" Strategic Vision Institute (SVI) and Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) (2015)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/shams_zaman/52/