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Article
Threshold Cointegration and Price Transmission when Expectations Matter
Agricultural Economics
  • Sergio H Lence, Iowa State University
  • Giancarlo Moschini, Iowa State
  • Fabio G. Santeramo, University of Foggia
Document Type
Article
Publication Version
Accepted Manuscript
Publication Date
7-1-2017
DOI
10.1111/agec.12393
Abstract

We examine the performance of the threshold cointegration approach, specifically Band-TVECM, to price transmission analysis in an explicit context where trade decisions are made based on expectation of final prices, because trade takes time. We find that, following a standard inference strategy, a large portion of three-regime cases are not identified as such. Results show that transfer costs are systematically underestimated, particularly in three-regime models. The speed of price transmission is also biased in three-regime models. Furthermore, inferences about occurrence of trade are poor, with estimated models suggesting far lower market integration than is true in the data generating process .

Comments

This article is published as Lence, S. H., G. Moschini, and F. G. Santeramo. “Threshold Cointegration and Price Transmission when Expectations Matter.” Agricultural Economics . Posted with permission.

Copyright Owner
International Association of Agricultural Economists
Language
en
File Format
application/pdf
Citation Information
Sergio H Lence, Giancarlo Moschini and Fabio G. Santeramo. "Threshold Cointegration and Price Transmission when Expectations Matter" Agricultural Economics Vol. 49 (2017) p. 1 - 15
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/sergio_lence/56/