Article
USDA Forecasts Of Crop Ending Stocks: How Well Have They Performed?
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy
Document Type
Article
Disciplines
Publication Version
Accepted Manuscript
Publication Date
4-7-2017
Publisher
Oxford University Press on behalf of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association
DOI
10.1093/aepp/ppx023
Abstract
This study analyzes forecasts of U.S. ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat issued by the USDA. The proposed efficiency tests focus on forecast revisions. Forecast errors are decomposed into monthly unforecastable shocks and idiosyncratic residuals. The error covariance matrix allows for heteroscedasticity and auto-correlations. Results suggest that the USDA forecasts are inefficient, providing strong evidence that the USDA is conservative in forecasting the ending stocks. Unforecastable shocks are heteroscedastic, and idiosyncratic residuals are small. Results are consistent across the three decades analyzed, but soybean forecasts are found to be considerably worse from 2005 to 2015.
Copyright Owner
The Author
Copyright Date
2017
Language
en
File Format
application/pdf
Citation Information
Jinzhi Xiao, Chad E. Hart and Sergio H Lence. "USDA Forecasts Of Crop Ending Stocks: How Well Have They Performed?" Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy Vol. 39 Iss. 2 (2017) p. 220 - 241 Available at: http://works.bepress.com/sergio_lence/53/
This article is published as Xiao, Jinzhi, Chad E. Hart, and Sergio H. Lence. "USDA Forecasts Of Crop Ending Stocks: How Well Have They Performed?." Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 39, no. 2 (2017): 220-241. doi: 10.1093/aepp/ppx023. Posted with permission.