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Article
Farmland Prices: Is This Time Different?
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy
  • Sergio H Lence, Iowa State University
Document Type
Article
Publication Version
Accepted Manuscript
Publication Date
1-1-2014
DOI
10.1093/aepp/ppu027
Abstract

The historical behavior of farmland prices, rental rates, and rates of return are examined by treating farmland as an asset with an infinitely long life. It is found that high (low) farmland prices relative to rents have historically preceded extended periods of low (high) net rates of return, rather than greater (smaller) growth in rents. Our analysis shows that this attribute is shared with stocks and housing, and the financial literature provides ample evidence that other assets feature it as well. The long-run relationship linking farmland prices, rents, and rates of return is analyzed. Based on this relationship, we conclude that recent trends are unlikely to be sustainable. The study explores the expected paths that farmland prices and rates of return might follow if they were to eventually conform to the average values observed in the historical sample, and concludes with a discussion of the policy implications. Recommendations for policy makers include close monitoring of farmland lending practices and institutions to allow early identification of potential problems, and identifying in advance appropriate interventions in case recent farmland market trends were to suddenly change.

Comments

This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy following peer review. The version of record is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aepp/ppu027

Copyright Owner
The Authors
Language
en
File Format
application/pdf
Citation Information
Sergio H Lence. "Farmland Prices: Is This Time Different?" Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy Vol. 36 Iss. 4 (2014) p. 577 - 603
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/sergio_lence/25/