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Article
Toward scalable stochastic unit commitment. Part 1: load scenario generation
Energy Systems
  • Yonghan Feng, Iowa State University
  • Ignacio Rios, University of Chile
  • Sarah M. Ryan, Iowa State University
  • Kai Spurkel, University of Duisburg-Essen
  • Jean-Paul Watson, Sandia National Laboratories
  • Roger Wets, University of California - Davis
  • David L. Woodruff, University of California - Davis
Document Type
Article
Publication Version
Accepted Manuscript
Publication Date
4-1-2015
DOI
10.1007/s12667-015-0146-8
Abstract

Unit commitment decisions made in the day-ahead market and during subsequent reliability assessments are critically based on forecasts of load. Tra- ditional, deterministic unit commitment is based on point or expectation-based load forecasts. In contrast, stochastic unit commitment relies on multiple load sce- narios, with associated probabilities, that in aggregate capture the range of likely load time-series. The shift from point-based to scenario-based forecasting necessi- tates a shift in forecasting technologies, to provide accurate inputs to stochastic unit commitment. In this paper, we discuss a novel scenario generation method- ology for load forecasting in stochastic unit commitment, with application to real data associated with the Independent System Operator for New England (ISO- NE). The accuracy of the expected scenario generated using our methodology is consistent with that of point forecasting methods. The resulting sets of realistic scenarios serve as input to rigorously test the scalability of stochastic unit com- mitment solvers, as described in the companion paper. The scenarios generated by our method are available as an online supplement to this paper, as part of a novel, publicly available large-scale stochastic unit commitment benchmark.

Comments

This is a manuscript of an article from Energy Systems (2015). The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12667-015-0146-8. Posted with permission.

Copyright Owner
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Language
en
File Format
application/pdf
Citation Information
Yonghan Feng, Ignacio Rios, Sarah M. Ryan, Kai Spurkel, et al.. "Toward scalable stochastic unit commitment. Part 1: load scenario generation" Energy Systems (2015)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/sarah_m_ryan/5/