Skip to main content
Article
Statistical metrics for assessing the quality of wind power scenarios for stochastic unit commitment
Wind Energy
  • Didem Sari, Iowa State University
  • Youngrok Lee, Iowa State University
  • Sarah M. Ryan, Iowa State University
  • David L. Woodruff, University of California - Davis
Document Type
Article
Publication Version
Submitted Manuscript
Publication Date
5-1-2016
DOI
10.1002/we.1872
Abstract
In power systems with high penetration of wind generation, probabilistic scenarios are generated for use in stochastic formulations of day-ahead unit commitment problems. To minimize the expected cost, the wind power scenarios should accurately represent the stochastic process for available wind power. We employ some statistical evaluation metrics to assess whether the scenario set possesses desirable properties that are expected to lead to a lower cost in stochastic unit commitment. A new mass transportation distance rank histogram is developed for assessing the reliability of unequally likely scenarios. Energy scores, rank histograms and Brier scores are applied to alternative sets of scenarios that are generated by two very different methods. The mass transportation distance rank histogram is best able to distinguish between sets of scenarios that are more or less calibrated according to their bias, variability and autocorrelation.
Comments

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article from Wind Energy 19 (2016): 873, which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1002/we.1872. This article may be used for non-commercial purposed in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.

Copyright Owner
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Language
en
File Format
application/pdf
Citation Information
Didem Sari, Youngrok Lee, Sarah M. Ryan and David L. Woodruff. "Statistical metrics for assessing the quality of wind power scenarios for stochastic unit commitment" Wind Energy Vol. 19 Iss. 5 (2016) p. 873 - 893
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/sarah_m_ryan/33/