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Presentation
Asymptotic Risk of Unit Commitment Schedule Due to Generating Unit Outages
IEEE International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS 2018) (2018)
  • Sarah M. Ryan
  • Jinchi Li, Iowa State University
  • Narges Kazemzadeh
Abstract
We propose a method for conducting mean-variance assessment of the cost and risk of a given unit commitment schedule with respect to thermal generating unit outages, assuming deterministic net load to be satisfied over a specified time horizon. By repeating the sequence of load levels and the unit commitment schedule cyclically over an extended time horizon, the linear dependence of the mean and variance of the dispatch cost on the length of that horizon can be exploited.  A simplifying assumption motivated by the $N-1$ security criterion allows the dispatch cost, considering stochastic forced outages, to be modeled as a renewal reward process.  A limit for the time average and an asymptotic approximation for the variance of the cost can then be computed quickly. Numerical results for an IEEE test system show that the approach provides a usefully accurate assessment of risk.
Keywords
  • Power system analysis computing,
  • Power generation dispatch,
  • Risk analysis,
  • Random processes
Publication Date
July, 2018
Location
Boise, ID
Citation Information
Sarah M. Ryan, Jinchi Li and Narges Kazemzadeh. "Asymptotic Risk of Unit Commitment Schedule Due to Generating Unit Outages" IEEE International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS 2018) (2018)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/sarah_m_ryan/100/