Effect of spontaneous gas expansion and mobilization on the aqueous-phase concentrations above a dense non-aqueous phase liquid pool.Advances in Water Resources (2010)
AbstractThis paper presents a framework to quantify the overall variability of the model estimations of Total Polychlorinated Biphenyls (Total PCBs) concentrations in the Niagara River on the basis of the uncertainty of few model parameters and the natural variability embedded in some of the model input variables. The results of the uncertainty analysis are used to understand the importance of stochastic model components and their effect on the overall reliability of the model output and to evaluate multiple sources of uncertainty that might need to be further studied. The uncertainty analysis is performed using a newly developed point estimate method, the Modiﬁed Rosenblueth method. The water quality along the Niagara River is simulated by coupling two numerical models the Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code (EFDC) – for the hydrodynamic portion of the study and the Water Quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) – for the fate and transport of contaminants. For the monitoring period from May 1995 to March 1997, the inﬂow Total PCBs concentration from Lake Erie is the stochastic component that most inﬂuences the variability of the modeling results for the simulated concentrations at the exit of the Niagara River. Other signiﬁcant stochastic components in order are as follows: the suspended sediments concentration, the point source loadings and to a minor degree the atmospheric deposition, the ﬂow and the non-point source loadings. Model results that include estimates of uncertainty provide more comprehensive information about the variability of contaminant concentrations, such as conﬁdence intervals, and, in general offer a better approach to compare model results with measured data.
Citation InformationKevin G Mumford, James Smith and Sarah E Dickson. "Effect of spontaneous gas expansion and mobilization on the aqueous-phase concentrations above a dense non-aqueous phase liquid pool." Advances in Water Resources Vol. 33 Iss. 4 (2010)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/sarah_dickson/2/