Social conflicts among large groups of people can have serious and costly consequences that can exceed the time and space boundaries of the contentious groups. They require carefully thought-out strategies for addressing the contested issues. However, the complexity of social conflicts poses obstacles to their resolution. Not only is it difficult to find clear cause-and-effect relationships, but the conflict dynamics impede prediction of outcomes. For any group in conflict, strategizing to find a way out requires an approach that allows testing of the range of consequences of various strategies. Thus in complex situations, where predicting how the opponent will respond to a strategy is difficult, a party to conflict might engage instead in anticipation, generating and preparing for a range of possible scenarios. We draw from duplex networks modeling to further analyze a recently proposed scenario generating model of conflicts and illustrate its application with two examples.
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/sanda_kaufman/68/