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Article
The Importance of Scenarios in the Prediction of the Social Implications of Emerging Technologies and Services
Journal of Cases on Information Technology (JCIT) (2011)
  • Katina Michael, University of Wollongong
  • M.G. Michael, University of Wollongong
  • Roba Abbas, University of Wollongong
Abstract

One mechanism by which the scientific elite who are responsible for the research and development of new innovations can ensure that the technologies they are building have safeguards inbuilt into their design is to consider all the possible ways that their technology can be used or misused. The methodology of “scenario planning” implemented using “stories” plays an important role here (Artz, 1998). Scenario planning is not about predicting the future verbatim but about exploring the possibilities: “[i]f you are aware of what could happen, you are better able to prepare for what will happen” (BREFI, 2011). This is a safe environment within which designers can postulate how the technology can be used in the very best way or the very worst way. Here “what if” style questions can be asked about the application of the technology, how it might affect both operational and non-operational stakeholders, and what types of socio-ethical implications might ensue. Despite the rush to be first to market, to capture the first mover subscriber base and the greatest part of the market share we cannot be deploying “proof of concepts” for real-time consideration without having done the necessary investigations beforehand.

Keywords
  • scenarios,
  • ICT,
  • prediction,
  • emerging technologies,
  • software,
  • implications,
  • social,
  • society,
  • application development
Disciplines
Publication Date
June 21, 2011
Citation Information
Katina Michael, M.G. Michael and Roba Abbas. "The Importance of Scenarios in the Prediction of the Social Implications of Emerging Technologies and Services" Journal of Cases on Information Technology (JCIT) Vol. 13 Iss. 2 (2011)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/roba-abbas/20/