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Article
Transport energy futures: a single or multiple transport energy paradigm?
Futures
  • Michael B Charles, Southern Cross University
  • Hong To, Southern Cross University
  • Pat Gillett, Southern Cross University
  • Tania von der Heidt
  • Rob Kivits, Southern Cross University
Document Type
Article
Publication Date
1-1-2011
Peer Reviewed
Peer-Reviewed
Abstract
The future of road transport, being currently reliant on carbon-based liquid fuels, is largely unclear. Some advocate the necessity of single renewable energy paradigm, but its realization is potentially fraught with difficulty owing to technological challenges, existing sunk costs, and path dependencies associated with existing and emerging options. It could also result in disadvantageous outcomes to emerging economies. Another school of thought proposes that future road transport, even within single nations, will require multiple energy types, mainly because a single source will be insufficient to meet projected needs. A multiple paradigm has the potential to be expensive because several infrastructures have to be implemented simultaneously. This paper aims to assess both concepts by considering the largely neglected dimensions of resource location and regional geophysical attributes, in addition to national technical expertise, industry capacity and modal factors. Case studies from both the developed world (the European Union and Australia) and the developing world (sub-Saharan Africa and China) will assess the possibility of implementing a single transport energy paradigm versus a more pluralistic regime. The results will help to inform policy making and enable greater foresight with regard to making long-term transport infrastructure investment decisions.
Disciplines
Citation Information

Charles, MB, To, H, Gillett, PV, Von Der Heidt, T & Kivits, R 2011, 'Transport energy futures: a single or multiple transport energy paradigm?', Futures, vol. 43, no. 10, pp. 1142-53.

The publisher's version of this article is available at

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2011.07.012