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Unpublished Paper
The Impact of Sanctions on Trade: An Application to the European-Russian Case
WP (2015)
  • Research in International Trade
Abstract
This  paper  analyzes  the  impact  of  the  European-Russian   sanctions  of  2014  on  the European export patterns. By applying a gravity model to disaggregated,  monthly data I assess  multiple  effects  that  possibly  kick  in  during  a  sanctions  episode.  First  of  all  I empirically  confirm  the  expectation  that  the  exports  of sanctioned  products  to  Russia significantly  decreased.  The impact  of the European  embargo  however  appears  to be limited compared to the effect of the Russian boycott. Second, evidence is found for the sanction  busting  argument,  as the European  exports  of Russian  blocked  goods  to the Eurasian Customs Union significantly increased. Further more my findings confirm the presence of the third country effect. Non-targeted  countries attracted considerably  more Russian boycotted  commodities of the EU. Fourth, domestic  agricultural prices faced a downward  trend  due  to  the  installed  trade  restrictions.  Contrary  to  my  expectation  of detecting a comparable price drop in the total,Europeanexportpatterns,Ionlyobserved this for the exports to Belarus. Next, the exports of non-boycotted  products declined as well. Finally, the results also point towards a more severe impact on perishable goods.
Publication Date
2015
DOI
http://www.scriptiebank.be/sites/default/files/webform/scriptie/Scriptie_Michiel_Van_Acoleyen.pdf
Citation Information
Research in International Trade. "The Impact of Sanctions on Trade: An Application to the European-Russian Case" WP (2015)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/researchin-internationaltrade/16/