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Impact of 65-mph Speed Limit on Iowa's Rural Interstate Highways: Integrated Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Modeling Approach
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board (1998)
  • Shanmuganathan Raju
  • Reginald R. Souleyrette
  • Thomas H. Maze
Abstract

In 1987, a provision of the Surface Transportation and Uniform Relocation Assistance Act allowed states to raise speed limits on rural Interstates to 65 mph (104.6 km/h). By 1995, nearly all states had done so. Several studies have investigated the safety impacts of these increases. Methodologies varied from analysis of variance to simple before and after comparison and have included time series procedures, with and without intervention variables. In general, these studies have produced contradictory findings. An integrated Bayesian forecasting and dynamic modeling approach used to determine the impact of the increased speed limit on rural Interstates of Iowa is reported. The approach is used to verify that raising the speed limit to 65 mph (104.6 km/h) led to an increase in fatal accidents on rural Interstates of Iowa. Comparison of fatal accident data on rural Interstates of Iowa and New Jersey yields similar results. Although this conclusion was anticipated, the study further demonstrates that a Bayesian/dynamic approach is more robust than the standard time series model.

Keywords
  • Dynamic models,
  • Fatalities,
  • Impact studies,
  • Interstate highways,
  • Rural highways,
  • Speed limits
Publication Date
1998
Citation Information
Shanmuganathan Raju, Reginald R. Souleyrette and Thomas H. Maze. "Impact of 65-mph Speed Limit on Iowa's Rural Interstate Highways: Integrated Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Modeling Approach" Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board Vol. 1640 (1998)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/reginald_souleyrette/26/