Natural variability in the myriad of physical processes that impact and control estuaries occurs at time scales that typically may exceed or partly exceed many monitoring programs. With respect to documenting and monitoring impacts of human influences- on estuaries, it is therefore important to frame the results of short-term monitoring programs within the context of longer term natural variability in the environment. In the Tampa Bay, Florida area, climate variability strongly influences seasonal precipitation, stream flow, and salinity. In particular, El Niño-Southern Oscillation impacts during the winter have the potential to influence both the availability of surface water for water supply withdrawal and the evaluation of the impacts of surface water withdrawals on the ecosystem.