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Article
Stochastic Variation in Network Epidemic Models: Implications for the Design of Community Level HIV Prevention Trials
Statistics in Medicine (2014)
  • David Boren, University of California - Los Angeles
  • Patrick Sullivan, Emory University
  • Chris Beyrer, Johns Hopkins University
  • Stefan Baral, Johns Hopkins University
  • Linda-Gail Becker, University of Cape Town
  • Ron Brookmeyer, University of California, Los Angeles
Abstract

Important sources of variation in the spread of HIV in communities arise from overlapping sexual networks and heterogeneity in biological and behavioral risk factors in populations. These sources of variation are not routinely accounted for in the design of HIV prevention trials. In this paper, we use agent based models to account for these sources of variation. We illustrate the approach with an agent based model for the spread of HIV infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) in South Africa. We find that traditional sample size approaches that rely on binomial (or Poisson) models are inadequate and can lead to underpowered studies. We develop sample size and power formulas for community randomized trials that incorporate estimates of variation determined from agent based models. We conclude that agent based models offer a useful tool in the design of HIV prevention trials.

Publication Date
September 28, 2014
Publisher Statement
The definitive version is available at onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Citation Information
David Boren, Patrick Sullivan, Chris Beyrer, Stefan Baral, et al.. "Stochastic Variation in Network Epidemic Models: Implications for the Design of Community Level HIV Prevention Trials" Statistics in Medicine Vol. 33 Iss. 22 (2014)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/rbrookmeyer/38/