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The Probability of Military Rule in Africa, 1970-2007
  • Raul Caruso
  • Roberto Ricciuti

In this paper we empirically analyze the socio-economic determinants of the existence of military dictatorships in Africa. A recent literature in political economy analyses the relationship between the civil undemocratic government and the military as an agency problem: the civilian government needs the army to avoid internal violence, but a larger army reduces the opportunity-cost for the military to run a coup d’état and seize power. These papers derive three main causes of military rule: income inequality, ethnic fractionalization, and external threat. We empirically analyze these issues by estimating the probability that a country experiences a military rule. We consider 48 African countries over the period 1970-2007.

  • Economic determinants of Dictatorship,
  • Africa,
  • military rule
Publication Date
Winter November, 2011
Citation Information
Raul Caruso and Roberto Ricciuti. "The Probability of Military Rule in Africa, 1970-2007" (2011)
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