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Unpublished Paper
Core supporters and long-term party switchers in U.S. Presidential Elections
University of Illinois (2016)
  • Stefan Krasa, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
  • Mattias K Polborn
Abstract
We analyze long term voter migration induced by an ideological realignment of Democratic and Republican elites on economic, moral and other issues.
When party positions change  to create sharper contrasts on social issues, and/or less sharp differences on economic issues, then voters with socially-conservative, but economically-liberal preferences are likely to switch their support from Democrats to Republicans, and vice versa.
Using data from the National Election Survey, we analyze the demographic characteristics, intelligence, ideological preferences and media consumption of these two groups of ``switch voters.''
We also compare them with the two parties' core supporters, and analyze the central ideological conflicts between and within each party's coalition of supporters.

Keywords
  • Polarization,
  • policy divergence,
  • ideology,
  • voter migration
Publication Date
February, 2016
Citation Information
Stefan Krasa and Mattias K Polborn. "Core supporters and long-term party switchers in U.S. Presidential Elections" University of Illinois (2016)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/polborn/32/