Article
Multi-Fraction Bayesian Sediment Transport Model
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
(2015)
Abstract
A Bayesian approach to sediment transport modeling can provide a strong basis for evaluating and propagating model uncertainty, which can be useful in transport applications. Previous work in developing and applying Bayesian sediment transport models used a single grain size fraction or characterized the transport of mixed-size sediment with a single characteristic grain size. Although this approach is common in sediment transport modeling, it precludes the possibility of capturing processes that cause mixed-size sediments to sort and, thereby, alter the grain size available for transport and the transport rates themselves. This paper extends development of a Bayesian transport model from one to kfractional dimensions. The model uses an existing transport function as its deterministic core and is applied to the dataset used to originally develop the function. The Bayesian multi-fraction model is able to infer the posterior distributions for essential model parameters and replicates predictive distributions of both bulk and fractional transport. Further, the inferred posterior distributions are used to evaluate parametric and other sources of variability in relations representing mixed-size interactions in the original model. Successful development of the model demonstrates that Bayesian methods can be used to provide a robust and rigorous basis for quantifying uncertainty in mixed-size sediment transport. Such a method has heretofore been unavailable and allows for the propagation of uncertainty in sediment transport applications.
Disciplines
Publication Date
2015
DOI
doi:10.3390/jmse3031066
Citation Information
Peter Richard Wilcock. "Multi-Fraction Bayesian Sediment Transport Model" Journal of Marine Science and Engineering Vol. 3 Iss. 3 (2015) p. 1066 - 1092 Available at: http://works.bepress.com/peter_wilcock/168/