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General practitioners' use of absolute risk versus individual risk factors in cardiovascular disease prevention: An experimental study
BMJ Open
  • Jesse Jansen, University of Sydney
  • Carissa Bonner, University of Sydney
  • Shannon Mckinn, University of Sydney
  • Les Irwig, University of Sydney
  • Paul Glasziou, Bond University
  • Jenny Doust, Bond University
  • Armando Teixeira-Pinto, University of Sydney
  • Andrew Hayen, University of Sydney
  • Robin Turner, University of Sydney
  • Kirsten McCaffery, University of Sydney
Date of this Version
1-1-2014
Document Type
Journal Article
Publication Details

Citation only

Jansen, J., Bonner, C., McKinn, S., Irwig, L., Glasziou, P., Doust, J.,Teixeria-Pinto, A., Hayen, A., Turner, R., & McCaffery, K. (2014). General practitioners' use of absolute risk versus individual risk factors in cardiovascular disease prevention: An experimental study. BMJ Open, 4(5).

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© Copyright, The Authors, 2014

Abstract
Objective: To understand general practitioners' (GPs) use of individual risk factors (blood pressure and cholesterol levels) versus absolute risk in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk management decision-making. Design: Randomised experiment. Absolute risk, systolic blood pressure (SBP), cholesterol ratio (total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein (TC/HDL)) and age were systematically varied in hypothetical cases. High absolute risk was defined as 5-year risk of a cardiovascular event >15%, high blood pressure levels varied between SBP 147 and 179 mm Hg and high cholesterol (TC/HDL ratio) between 6.5 and 7.2 mmol/L. Setting: 4 GP conferences in Australia. Participants: 144 Australian GPs. Outcomes: GPs indicated whether they would prescribe cholesterol and/or blood pressure lowering medication. Analyses involved logistic regression. Results: For patients with high blood pressure: 93% (95% CI 86% to 96%) of high absolute risk patients and 83% (95% CI 76% to 88%) of lower absolute risk patients were prescribed blood pressure medication. Conversely, 30% (95% CI 25% to 36%) of lower blood pressure patients were prescribed blood pressure medication if absolute risk was high and 4% (95% CI 3% to 5%) if lower. 69% of high cholesterol/high absolute risk patients were prescribed cholesterol medication (95% CI 61% to 77%) versus 34% of high cholesterol/ lower absolute risk patients (95% CI 28% to 41%). 36% of patients with lower cholesterol (95% CI 30% to 43%) were prescribed cholesterol medication if absolute risk was high versus 10% if lower (95% CI 8% to 13%). Conclusions: GPs' decision-making was more consistent with the management of individual risk factors than an absolute risk approach, especially when prescribing blood pressure medication. The results suggest medical treatment of lower risk patients (5-year risk of CVD event
Citation Information
Jesse Jansen, Carissa Bonner, Shannon Mckinn, Les Irwig, et al.. "General practitioners' use of absolute risk versus individual risk factors in cardiovascular disease prevention: An experimental study" BMJ Open (2014) ISSN: 2044-6055
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/paul_glasziou/116/