Evaluation of the Surface Climatology over the Conterminous United States in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program Hindcast Experiment Using a Regional Climate Model Evaluation SystemJournal of Climate (2013)
Surface air temperature, precipitation, and insolation over the conterminous United States region from the
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) regional climate model
(RCM) hindcast study are evaluated using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Regional Climate Model
Evaluation System (RCMES). All RCMs reasonably simulate the observed climatology of these variables.
RCM skill varies more widely for the magnitude of spatial variability than the pattern. The multimodel
ensemble is among the best performers for all these variables. Systematic biases occur across these RCMs for
the annual means, with warm biases over the Great Plains (GP) and cold biases in the Atlantic and the Gulf of
Mexico (GM) coastal regions. Wet biases in the Pacific Northwest and dry biases in the GM/southern Great
Plains also occur in most RCMs. AllRCMs suffer problems in simulating summer rainfall in the Arizona–New
Mexico region. RCMs generally overestimate surface insolation, especially in the eastern United States.
Negative correlation between the biases in insolation and precipitation suggest that these two fields are related,
likely via clouds. Systematic variations in biases for regions, seasons, variables, and metrics suggest that
the bias correction in applying climate model data to assess the climate impact on various sectors must be
performed accordingly. Precipitation evaluation with multiple observations reveals that observational data
can be an important source of uncertainties in model evaluation; thus, cross examination of observational data
is important for model evaluation.
- Ocean temperature,
- Climatic changes,
- Atmospheric models,
Publication DateAugust, 2013
Citation InformationKim, J., Waliser, D. E., Mattmann, C. A., Mearns, L. O., Goodale, C. E., Hart, A. F., ... & Boustani, M. (2013). Evaluation of the surface climatology over the conterminous United States in the North American regional climate change assessment program hindcast experiment using a regional climate model evaluation system. Journal of Climate, 26(15), 5698-5715.