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Article
Evaluation of the Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 convective outlooks
Weather and Forecasting (2012)
  • Nathan M Hitchens, Ball State University
  • Harold E Brooks
Abstract

The Storm Prediction Center has issued daily convective outlooks since the mid-1950s. This paper represents an initial effort to examine the quality of these forecasts. Convective outlooks are plotted on a latitude–longitude grid with 80-km grid spacing and evaluated using storm reports to calculate verification measures including the probability of detection, frequency of hits, and critical success index. Results show distinct improvements in forecast performance over the duration of the study period, some of which can be attributed to apparent changes in forecasting philosophies.

Keywords
  • forecast verification/skill
Publication Date
2012
Citation Information
Nathan M Hitchens and Harold E Brooks. "Evaluation of the Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 convective outlooks" Weather and Forecasting Vol. 27 Iss. 6 (2012)
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/nathanhitchens/3/