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Article
Climate variability and inter-state migration in India
CESIfo Economic Studies (2017)
  • Ingrid Dallmann, University Paris Saclay
  • Katrin Millock
Abstract
We combine migration data from the 1991 and 2001 Indian Census with climate data to investigate the impact of climate variability on internal migration. The article makes four contributions to the existing literature on macro-level migration flows. First, use of census data allows us to test and compare the effect on migration of climatic factors
prior to migration. Second, we introduce relevant meteorological indicators of climate variability, to measure the frequency, duration and magnitude of drought and excess precipitation based on the Standardized Precipitation Index. Third, we estimate the total effect (direct and indirect effects) of climate variability on bilateral migration rates. Fourth, we examine three possible channels through which climate variability could induce migration: average income, agriculture and urbanization. The estimation results show that drought frequency in the origin state increases inter-state migration in India. This effect is stronger in agricultural states, and in such states the magnitude of drought also increases inter-state migration significantly. Drought frequency has the strongest effect on rural–rural inter-state migration.


Keywords
  • climate variability,
  • drought,
  • excess precipitation,
  • India,
  • internal migration,
  • PPML,
  • SPI
Publication Date
September 27, 2017
DOI
10.1093/cesifo/ifx014
Citation Information
Ingrid Dallmann and Katrin Millock. "Climate variability and inter-state migration in India" CESIfo Economic Studies (2017) ISSN: Online ISSN 1612-7501
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/millock/16/