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Article
Citizen Forecasting: Can Voters See into the Future?
British Journal of Political Science
  • Michael S. Lewis-Beck, University of Iowa
  • Andrew Skalaban
Document Type
Article
Peer Reviewed
1
Publication Date
1-1-1989
DOI of Published Version
10.1017/S000712340000538X
Abstract

Political science, unlike economics, does not have a long tradition of forecasting models. However, this is changing. Currently, there is considerable interest in election forecasting. The basis for the interest is a flurry of related publications on House, Senate and presidential elections. A common goal for these studies is the development of a model, inevitably based on aggregate time-series data, which predicts election returns. The resulting models, some of which are quite accurate, can differ a good deal in specification and estimation. Also, they vary in complexity, making them more or less accessible to the engaged voter.

Journal Article Version
Version of Record
Published Article/Book Citation
British Journal of Political Science, 19:1 (1989) pp. 419-427. DOI: 10.1017/S000712340000538X
Rights
Copyright © 1989 Cambridge University Press. Used by permission. http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayJournal?jid=JPS
Disciplines
Citation Information
Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Andrew Skalaban. "Citizen Forecasting: Can Voters See into the Future?" British Journal of Political Science Vol. 19 Iss. 1 (1989) p. 419 - 427 ISSN: 0007-1237
Available at: http://works.bepress.com/michael_lewis_beck/151/